Introduction
In 2025, Vietnam and the Philippines continue to strengthen their trade relationship, driven by increasing consumer demand, regional supply chains, and competitive shipping services. For businesses and individuals, sending goods to the Philippines has become more vital than ever. However, recent fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly between the Vietnamese dong (VND) and the Philippine peso (PHP), are reshaping the costs and strategies behind cross-border logistics.
This article explores the latest updates on VND–PHP exchange rates, their impact on logistics and shipping costs, and what businesses should expect when sending goods to the Philippines in 2025.
Currency Exchange Update: VND to PHP
According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the VND has experienced moderate depreciation against the Philippine peso in early 2025. As of September 2025, the exchange rate stands at approximately 1 VND = 0.0023 PHP, compared to 0.0026 PHP in 2024 (SBV, 2025). This represents a drop of nearly 11% year-over-year, increasing the relative cost of imports from Vietnam to the Philippines.
Meanwhile, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) highlights a stronger PHP due to robust remittances and steady GDP growth projected at 5.8% for 2025 (World Bank, 2025). For Vietnamese exporters, this means shipments priced in VND are slightly more affordable to Philippine buyers, potentially boosting demand for Vietnamese goods.
Trade and Shipping Data
Vietnam-Philippines trade has been steadily expanding. In 2024, bilateral trade reached USD 7.8 billion, up 9% from 2023 (ASEANStats, 2025). The top categories of goods shipped from Vietnam to the Philippines include:
- Rice and agricultural products
- Electronics and machinery
- Garments and textiles
- Consumer goods (FMCG)
Shipping volumes reflect this growth. According to PSA Philippines, containerized cargo between Vietnam and the Philippines increased by 12% year-on-year in 2024, surpassing 600,000 TEUs. With new trade agreements under RCEP, analysts expect trade volumes to grow further in 2025.
Forecasts for USD/PHP in 2025–2026
Analysts remain divided, but most agree the peso will stay volatile.
- MUFG Research (May 2025): Projects PHP to strengthen toward ₱55/USD in Q3 and ₱54.5/USD in Q4 2025, citing lower inflation and improved remittances. (MUFG)
- LiteFinance Forecast: Wider trading band, predicting fluctuations between ₱50.58 and ₱62.05/USD, with an average of ₱56.26 by year-end 2025. (LiteFinance)
- TradingEconomics Outlook: Predicts peso depreciation in 2026, citing U.S. Fed tightening and slower Philippine GDP growth. (TradingEconomics)
This uncertainty makes it difficult for companies to lock in stable shipping costs when they ship goods to the Philippines.
The Logistics Impact: How Currency Shapes Shipping
Currency exchange may sound like a finance problem, but in reality it directly influences logistics, customs, and client pricing.
| Logistics Element | Currency Impact | Example Scenario |
| Freight Costs | Usually invoiced in USD. If peso weakens, importers need more PHP to cover the same USD freight bill. | A $5,000 freight charge costs ₱277,500 at ₱55/USD but ₱285,600 at ₱57/USD. |
| Customs Duties & Taxes | Computed in PHP, based on shipment value (often declared in USD). Currency conversion at time of clearance may inflate final duties. | A $20,000 shipment may incur 3–5% higher duties if peso weakens before clearance. |
| Warehouse & Delivery Fees | Charged locally in PHP. If peso depreciates, foreign partners paying in USD might miscalculate the local costs. | ₱100,000 storage fee = $1,818 at ₱55/USD, but only $1,754 at ₱57/USD. |
| Cash Payments Above ₱500,000 | Trigger BSP scrutiny. Increases processing time and compliance burden. | Paying ₱600,000 customs duty in cash now requires supporting documents. |
For PDA Fulfillment, this means transparent communication with clients is key: exchange rates may change between the time of quote and the time of delivery.
Impact on Shipping Costs
Currency fluctuations directly affect shipping costs and freight demand:
- Exporters in Vietnam: With the peso strengthening, Filipino importers find Vietnamese products more competitive, leading to increased demand for shipments.
- Importers in the Philippines: Stronger PHP makes shipping fees denominated in USD or VND more manageable, reducing logistics overhead.
- Air vs. Sea Freight: Sea freight remains the dominant mode for gửi hàng đi Philippines, with LCL (less-than-container load) and FCL (full-container load) services gaining traction. Air freight, while faster, has seen a 7% cost increase due to rising fuel surcharges in 2025 (IATA, 2025).
E-Commerce and Consumer Shipping Trends
E-commerce continues to drive small parcel shipments from Vietnam to the Philippines. According to Statista (2025), the Philippines’ e-commerce market is projected to hit USD 24 billion by 2026, growing at 14% CAGR. Vietnamese sellers on platforms like Shopee and Lazada increasingly rely on logistics providers for efficient cross-border delivery.
For consumers, this means:
- Faster delivery options through consolidated air shipments.
- Competitive pricing for lightweight packages.
- Increased demand for transparent customs clearance and tracking services.
Logistics Challenges
Despite positive trends, challenges remain:
- Customs Clearance: The Philippines maintains strict customs regulations, and delays still occur if documentation is incomplete.
- Port Congestion: Manila’s ports have experienced congestion, adding 1–3 days to shipping schedules during peak months (JOC, 2025).
- Rising Fuel Costs: Global oil prices increased by 8% in 2025, affecting freight surcharges worldwide.
These factors require businesses to carefully select logistics partners when planning to gửi hàng đi Philippines.
Opportunities for Businesses
While challenges exist, the current market also provides opportunities:
- Competitive Advantage for Exporters: With a stronger PHP, Filipino buyers gain more purchasing power for Vietnamese goods.
- Diversification of Routes: Shipping companies are exploring secondary ports like Cebu and Davao to reduce congestion at Manila.
- Digital Integration: Logistics providers now offer AI-powered tracking, real-time rate comparison, and predictive delivery windows.
How PDA Fulfillment Supports Shipping to the Philippines
At PDA Fulfillment, we understand that exchange rates and logistics costs directly affect businesses and individuals looking to gửi hàng đi Philippines. Our tailored services include:
- Flexible Freight Options: Sea and air solutions for both bulk cargo and small parcels.
- Cost Optimization: Leveraging consolidated shipments to minimize expenses.
- Reliable Customs Handling: Ensuring smooth clearance to avoid delays.
- Transparent Tracking: Real-time visibility from Vietnam to the Philippines.
With PDA Fulfillment, businesses can stay competitive in a rapidly changing trade environment.
Conclusion
The strengthening of the Philippine peso and ongoing trade growth between Vietnam and the Philippines create a favorable environment for cross-border shipping in 2025. While challenges like port congestion and fuel costs persist, the opportunities outweigh the risks. For companies and individuals aiming to gửi hàng đi Philippines, the key lies in partnering with reliable logistics providers who understand the nuances of currency trends, freight costs, and customs compliance.
PDA Fulfillment remains committed to helping clients navigate these dynamics, providing cost-effective, transparent, and efficient shipping solutions to the Philippines.
Sources:
- State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), 2025
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), 2025
- World Bank, 2025
- ASEANStats, 2025
- Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), 2025
- IATA, 2025
- JOC, 2025
- Statista, 2025
- MUFG, 2025
- LiteFinance, 2025
- TradingEconomics, 2025